A theoretical prediction for the dipole in nearby distances using cosmography

Cosmography is a widely applied method to infer kinematics of the Universe at small cosmological scales while remaining agnostic about the theory of gravity at play. Usually cosmologists invoke the Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) metric in cosmographic analyses; however, generalised approaches allow for analyses outside of any assumed geometrical model. These methods have great promise to be able to model-independently map the cosmic neighborhood where the Universe has not yet converged to isotropy. In this regime, anisotropies can bias parameter inferences if they are not accounted for, and thus must be included for precision cosmology analyses, even when the principal aim is to infer the background cosmology. In this paper, we develop a method for predicting the dipole in luminosity distances that arises due to nearby inhomogeneities. This is the leading-order correction to the standard isotropic distance-redshift law. Within a very broad class of general-relativistic universe models, we provide an interpretation of the dipole in terms of the gradients in expansion rate and density which is free from any underlying background cosmology. We use numerical relativity simulations, with improved initial data methods, alongside fully relativistic ray tracing to test the power of our prediction. We find our prediction accurately captures the dipole signature in our simulations to within \(\sim 10\%\) for redshifts \(z\lesssim 0.07\) in reasonably smooth simulations. In the presence of more non-linear density fields, we find this reduces to \(z\lesssim 0.02\). This represents up to an order of magnitude improvement with respect to what is achieved by naive, local cosmography-based predictions. Our paper thus addresses important issues regarding convergence properties of anisotropic cosmographic series expansions that would otherwise limit their applicability to very narrow redshift ranges.